What the data actually says about prediction markets — including the parts that do not favour us. Measurements from our own dataset, no promises.
Most prediction-market advice is folklore. We ran the numbers on ~19 million real on-chain bets and found that the popular strategies — copying whales, following big money, chasing longshots — do not hold up.
ReadA trader with no history bet nearly two million dollars on Spain and walked away with $1.35M. The press implied inside information. The public trade log tells a simpler story.
ReadWe dig through 19 million real Polymarket bets and publish what we find — including the strategies that do not hold up. One email when there is a new analysis.
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Whale radar, large-trade feed, market explorer, strategy builder with backtesting and paper trading. Free to start. Try Polyradar
Polyradar is an analysis tool. Nothing here is investment advice, and no figure is an indication of future results. Prediction markets carry risk of loss; only stake what you can afford to lose.